Analyzing admissions metrics as predictors of graduate GPA and whether graduate GPA mediates Ph.D. completion

As physics graduate admission committees across the country consider eliminating GRE scores from consider- ation when evaluating applicants [1,2], it is important to continue examining the GRE’s ability to predict success in graduate school in order for programs to make informed policy choices. Although GRE scores are among the numeric metrics that best predict admission into U.S. graduate programs [3,4], there are significant disparities in typical GRE performance between students of different demographic backgrounds [5]. Combined with the fact that physics remains one of the least diverse of all the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM) fields [6], the prospect that GRE tests limit the ability of certain students to enter graduate school has led researchers to begin questioning the utility of GRE exam scores in the graduate admissions process in comparison to other quantitative metrics such as undergraduate GPA (UGPA) [1,7,8]. Among some of the findings in this body of work are indications that earning high marks on the GRE Physics (GRE-P) test fails to help students “stand out” to admis- sions committees who would have overlooked them due to an otherwise weak application [8], and that typical physics Ph.D. admissions criteria such as the GRE-P exam fail to predict Ph.D. completion despite limiting access to gradu- ate school for underrepresented groups [1].